Inflation In New York Metropolitan Area (Including Rockland County) Eased During Middle East Ceasefire
ANALYSIS
The inflation rate for our metropolitan region for June 2026 was 4.1% compared to the previous 12 months, with consumer prices actually decreasing 0.2% from May to June, based on data released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Key local data highlights revealed a 12-month inflation rate of 4.1% for all items. Removing food and energy (what the BLS calls Core inflation), the rate was 3.4%, representing a month-over-month change of -0.2% (driven largely by a cooling in local energy prices during the short-lived cease fire in Iran).
While inflation slowed on a monthly basis in our area, it still remained higher than the national average. Energy prices remain a massive local pain point, advancing 16.2% over the past 12 months despite cooling down slightly month-over-month.
The national average price for unleaded regular gasoline is $3.99 per gallon, with the average in New York State and Rockland County at $4.13 and $4.24, respectively. Diesel prices hit $5.42 per gallon, a 40% increase over $3.93, the price 12 months ago.
Gasoline prices declined 7.4 percent after four consecutive price increases, but the gasoline index rose 33.8% over the prior twelve months.
Gasoline prices are rising again as geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East. The collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz are once again restricting crude supplies and shrinking global fuel reserves. An increase in the price of gasoline at the pumps will impact the inflation rate for July.
Electricity
On a national scene, the average price per kWh in June was $0.20. But here in New York, the average residential electricity price fluctuated between $0.24 and $0.295 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
Official data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the state’s average residential retail rate at $0.2945 cents per kWh. This places New York among the highest-priced states in the country, roughly 56% above the national average. Only Hawaii, California and Connecticut have higher average residential retail rates that New York.
The average residential electricity price in Rockland County ranges between $0.23 and $0.27 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
Rockland County is served by Orange and Rockland Utilities (O&R), a subsidiary of Consolidated Edison. While O&R’s specific baseline residential supply and delivery rates average out to around 22.86 to 24.71 cents per kWh, total pricing shifts depending on your exact municipality (e.g., averaging $0.24/kWh in Tappan vs. $0.27/kWh in Congers, according to energysage.com).
$1 Billion in One-Time Energy Rebate Checks
The New York State budget includes the issuance of a one-time, $1 billion Protecting Our Wallets Energy Rebate (POWER) check to help provide needed relief to taxpayers.
The POWER program will provide $200 to joint filers with incomes under $150,000 and $150 to joint filers with incomes between $150,000 and $300,000. Single filers with incomes under $150,000 will receive $100. The rebates will be issued as advanced credit checks and will be mailed out between September and December.
Eligibility is limited to full-time residents of New York State that filed a timely New York State Resident Income Tax Return for Tax Year 2024.
Food Prices
According to the BLS, the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last twelve months with “overall food-at-home” costs rising 2.7% over the 12 months ending in June.
For June specifically, the food index was unchanged, following a 0.5-percent decline in May. Among the groceries with price increases were snacks, spices, seasonings, condiments, sauces, and bread. Prices were lower for fresh fruits and vegetables, including tomatoes. The food away from home index (restaurant, cafeteria, and vending purchases) ticked up 0.1 percent. Over the last twelve months, the “food away from home” costs increased 3.2%
For the prices tracked by RCBJ’s Inflation Tracker, beef prices continued their steady increase, coming in at $6.98 per pound, an increase from $6.72 in May. Beef prices have increased almost 27% since January 2025. (See graphs below)
Whole milk also continued to rise, coming in at $4.32 per gallon, up from $4.21 in May, up 7.5% since January 2025.
And, national average energy prices reached a new high of $.20 per kWH, the highest price since RCBJ began tracking costs.
The national index for all items less food and energy declined 0.1 percent in June.
Within shelter (-0.2 percent), prices decreased for lodging away from home, while prices rose for owners’ equivalent rent (+0.2 percent) and rent of primary residence (+0.1 percent).
Apparel prices, often down in June, decreased 2.4 percent. Prices also declined for medical care (-1.7 percent). In contrast, prices rose for recreation (+1.5 percent) and new and used motor vehicles (+1.3 percent), with higher prices for used cars and trucks (+1.3 percent) and for car and truck rental.
The index for all items less food and energy advanced 3.4 percent over the year. A 4.3-percent rise in shelter prices included increases in owners’ equivalent rent (+4.5 percent) and rent of primary residence (+4.2 percent).
Airline fares also rose over the year, primarily due to surging jet fuel costs driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. This rise is compounded by steady consumer travel demand, aircraft delivery delays, limiting seat capacity, and the exit of budget carriers (like Spirit Airlines) which has reduced route competition.
National unemployment declined to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May.
Editor’s Note: For many months, when the government ceased publishing data, RCBJ has paused its “Price Tracker” — a tool enabling readers to see the effects on prices for various commodities from January 2024 through June 2026. Now with data available again, we are back online. Just one caveat: data was blacked out during the government shutdown in October, 2025. There have also been a few holes in the data, and where those holes appear, rather than extrapolate the data, we simply left the month blank. The blanks appear as a gap in the graphs below.
The categories we are tracking are:
- Whole Milk
- Grade A Large Eggs
- Navel Oranges
- Tomatoes, Field Grown
- Ground Chuck, 100% Beef
- Chicken, Fresh, Whole
- Electricity Per KWH
- Gasoline, Regular Unleaded
- Unemployment Rate
- 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (Average)
- Coffee, 100% Ground Roast
Scroll down to view the data.
