Consumer Sentiment Reflected In Rising Prices For Gasoline, Coffee, Beef & Other Commodities

Inflation Continues To Be Of Concern, Gas Prices In Rockland County Average $4.33 Per Gallon

ANALYSIS

The economy, particularly with inflation-fueled prices at the supermarket, and war-induced prices at the gas pump, is breeding caution among American consumers. Prices for major commodities like beef, coffee, and groceries have hit family budgets, while prices for diesel and jet fuel have hurt businesses, that often pass increased costs onto consumers, causing more pain.

Despite these realities, according to the Conference Board, a research group, consumer sentiment improved this month to 92.8, from 92.2 in March, countering evidence from another major poll that showed the mood had darkened. That poll, from the University of Michigan, showed its consumer-sentiment index dropping to 49.8, from 53.3 last month. That is below the previous low of 50 seen in June 2022, when shoppers faced rising post-pandemic inflation, and was the worst reading in the more than 50-year history of the Michigan survey.

There are many ways of measuring consumer sentiment, and both polls showed some signs of improvement after the hostilities in Iran and the Gulf paused.

Gasoline Prices

According to Gallup, high gas prices continue to serve as a daily reminder of inflation, and the conflict in Iran has driven gasoline prices up, with national averages rising to over $4.18 per gallon in April. Rising fuel costs are causing households to reduce spending in other areas, as gasoline represents a higher share of expenses for middle- and lower-income families.

Federal Reserve data for the penultimate week of, U.S. fuel prices have spiked significantly, with gasoline averaging over $4.18 per gallon, diesel exceeding $5.35 per gallon, and jet fuel nearly doubling due to the conflict in Iran. Prices are at their highest level since 2022, with the West Coast seeing gasoline approach $6 per gallon.

In Rockland County, the average price of unleaded regular gasoline is $4.332 per gallon. The average price in New York State is $4.214 per gallon, according to AAA.

Inflation & Commodity Prices

As of the March 2026 report from the Federal Reserve in St. Louis, US core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.6% annually, with a 0.2% monthly increase, showing signs of deceleration despite high energy costs driving overall inflation. While April 2026 data is not officially released until May 12, 2026, analysts expect persistent service inflation and potential energy shocks to keep core pressures elevated.

Looking at food prices, in March of 2026 (the month with the most recent available data), egg prices have returned to a relative normal, down from $6.223 in March of 2025, now at $2.35 per dozen. Prices returned to normal levels due to a rapid increase in supply, with roughly 9 million more hens now laying eggs compared to last year. Farmers aggressively repopulated flocks following major avian flu outbreaks, creating an oversupply that caused wholesale prices to plummet by over 90% in some cases. (See chart below)

Beef prices remain stubbornly high, hovering around $6.68 per pound, an increase of about 20% from January 2025. The sky seems to be the limit as the climb has been steady and relentless, going from about $5.00 per pound in January of 2024 to a recent record high.

Beef remains expensive due to a historically low U.S. cattle supply—the smallest in over 70 years—caused by severe, multi-year droughts that forced ranchers to reduce herds. High production costs for feed and labor, and strong consumer demand have created a supply-and-demand mismatch, leading to higher retail prices. (See chart below)

Milk prices have had a slow, but steady increase in pricing since last year, up in March to an average of $4.06 per gallon.

A real heartache for Americans though is coffee, both at home and at the corner coffee shop, with coffee prices up almost 20% in 2025 (the gap in the graph is from the government shutdown when data was unavailable). In March, ground roast coffee reached $9.61 per pound, the highest price since RCBJ started tracking prices.

Electricity prices ebbed from a recent high and came in at $0.190/kwh, receding from $0.192/kwh in January. Electricity and natural gas prices are on everyone’s mind, especially with delivery and increased costs of grid improvements weighing on consumers. The robust construction of data centers is also expected to increase the costs to consumer as grid improvement costs are generally paid by local residential users.

National unemployment ticked up to retreated down to 4.3% in March from a high of 4.5% last November.

Editor’s Note: For many months, when the government ceased publishing data, RCBJ has paused its “Price Tracker” — a tool enabling readers to see the effects on prices for various commodities from January 2024 through March 2026. Now with data available again, we are back online. Just one caveat: data was blacked out during the government shutdown in October, 2025. There have also been a few holes in the data, and where those holes appear, rather than extrapolate the data, we simply left the month blank. The blanks appear as a gap in the graphs below.

The categories we are tracking are: