High Prices For Gasoline, Coffee, Beef Drive Inflation; Rockland Gas Prices Retreat To $4.47 Per Gallon

For The Second Month Running, Local Inflation Outpaces National CPI; Energy Costs Continue To Rise. Beef, Coffee, Food Prices Hold Steady

ANALYSIS

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in May (seasonally adjusted). Over the past 12 months, the overall inflation rate at the national level reached 4.2% (not seasonally adjusted), largely driven by surging energy costs.

For the New York metropolitan area, the picture is worse. The most recent Consumer Price Index for the local area showed a 12-month annual inflation rate of 5.1% for all items, and a 3.9% increase when excluding volatile food and energy costs, according to the Federal Reserve.

May 2026 consumer sentiment reports painted a largely pessimistic picture, characterized by historic lows in mood and growing anxiety. Sentiment was weighed down by inflation, the war in Iran, and volatile fuel costs.

The prominent economic indicators from the month include:

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: Sentiment dropped to record or near-record lows. This was driven by worsening future inflation perceptions, with long-run inflation expectations climbing to 3.9%. Consumers felt a heavier economic pinch than during previous major crises.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index: Confidence eased slightly to 93.1. This report highlighted a pessimistic labor market view, with the share of consumers viewing jobs as “not plentiful” reaching its highest level since 2021.
LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index: The primary index continued its downward trajectory. While job sentiment held relatively steady, deep declines were seen in investment, current economic conditions, and long-term expectations.
New York Fed Inflation Expectations: One-year-ahead inflation expectations remained elevated, while household spending growth projections dipped slightly, driven mostly by consumers over 60 and lower-income brackets

Expectations impact current spending and plans for the future, including travel, major purchases, savings rates, and credit card debt. While high-income earners continue to spend, lower-income households are facing pressure, creating a “K-shaped” trend driven by inflation worries, high interest rates, added debt and and depleted savings.

Prices for major commodities like beef, coffee, and groceries continue to hit family budgets hard.

Beef prices are staying near record highs, with ground beef and steaks sitting around 15% higher year-over-year. This surge in pricing is driven by a severely constricted U.S. cattle supply, with the national herd dropping to its lowest level since 1951, combined with high ranching costs and robust consumer demand. Add into the mix, a flesh-eating parasite called the New World Screwworm which has been detected in US cattle herds in the Southwest, which is threatening to drive already-record beef prices even higher as infected herds are culled.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index for May 2026 registered at -45 reflecting a seven-point drop from April, and 18-point drop from March, and the lowest reading since October 2022. This score, which operates on a theoretical scale of -100 to +100, indicates a deeply pessimistic public outlook on the U.S. economy

Gasoline Prices

According to Gallup, high gas prices continue to serve as a daily reminder of inflation, and the continuing conflict in Iran has driven gasoline prices up in the last 100-plus days, though national averages settled down to $4.10 per gallon. Rising fuel costs are causing households to reduce spending in other areas, as gasoline represents a higher share of expenses for middle- and lower-income families.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, national retail diesel prices currently average about $5.21 per gallon, while wholesale jet fuel prices hover around $3.37 per gallon. Retail jet fuel prices in the northeast are $7.93 per gallon. Both fuels have seen sharp price increases due to rising global crude oil costs and regional supply constraints

In Rockland County, the average price of unleaded regular gasoline is $4.47 per gallon. The average price in New York State is $4.39 per gallon, according to AAA.

Inflation & Commodity Prices

Looking at food prices, in May of 2026 (the month with the most recent available data), egg prices have returned to a relative normal, down from $6.223 in March of 2025, now at $2.19 per dozen. Prices returned to normal levels due to a rapid increase in supply, with roughly 9 million more hens now laying eggs compared to last year. Farmers aggressively repopulated flocks following major avian flu outbreaks, creating an oversupply that caused wholesale prices to plummet by over 90% in some cases. (See chart below)

Beef prices are hovering around record highs, hovering around $6.72 per pound, an increase of about 22% from January 2025. The sky seems to be the limit as the climb has been steady and relentless, going from about $5.00 per pound in January of 2024 to a recent record high.

Milk prices have had a slow, but steady increase in pricing since last year, up in May to an average of $4.22 per gallon.

A real heartache for Americans though is coffee, both at home and at the corner coffee shop, with coffee prices up almost 20% in 2025 (the gap in the graph is from the government shutdown when data was unavailable) and closing in on $10 per pound. In May, ground roast coffee was $9.52 per pound, receding a bit from last months record high.

While the price of raw coffee beans on the commodities market dropped notably from peak levels, retail coffee costs remain high for consumers. Wholesale and consumer prices are slow to adjust, and persistent inflation keeps the cost of your morning cup well above historical averages.

Electricity prices increased and exceeded a recent high, coming in at $0.196/kwh. Electricity and natural gas prices are on everyone’s mind, especially with delivery and increased costs of grid improvements weighing on consumers. The robust construction of data centers is also expected to increase the costs to consumer as grid improvement costs are generally paid by local residential users.

National unemployment stayed level in May at 4.3%, down from a high of 4.5% last November.

Editor’s Note: For many months, when the government ceased publishing data, RCBJ has paused its “Price Tracker” — a tool enabling readers to see the effects on prices for various commodities from January 2024 through April 2026. Now with data available again, we are back online. Just one caveat: data was blacked out during the government shutdown in October, 2025. There have also been a few holes in the data, and where those holes appear, rather than extrapolate the data, we simply left the month blank. The blanks appear as a gap in the graphs below.

The categories we are tracking are: