Consumer Sentiment Reflected In Rising Prices For Gasoline, Coffee, Beef. Rockland Gas Prices Hit $4.70 Per Gallon

Energy, Beef, Coffee, Food Prices Explode. Local Increases Exceed National Averages

ANALYSIS

Things are bad. Inflation-fueled prices at the supermarket, and war-induced prices at the gas pump, have pushed the Consumer Price Index in April up 0.6 percent to a rate of 3.8 percent over the last 12 months.

Breaking down the increases, energy costs are up 17.4% annually. Fuel oil is up 54.3%, gasoline 28.4% and electricity 6.1%. Airfares have increased 20.7%.

Things are worse here locally.

In our region, the CPI rose 1.0 percent in April to 4.4 percent annually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The energy index increased 7.3 percent over the month and energy prices rose 21.8 percent. Food prices increased at a 3.9 percent annual rate.

Prices for major commodities like beef, coffee, and groceries have hit family budgets hard.

But, how things look going forward depends on who you ask. According to the Conference Board, a research group, consumer sentiment edged up this month by 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, from 92.2, contrary to evidence from another major poll that showed the mood had darkened. That poll, from the University of Michigan, showed its consumer-sentiment index dropping to 48.2 from 49.8 last month. That is below the previous low of 50 seen in June 2022, when shoppers faced rising post-pandemic inflation, and was the worst reading in the more than 50-year history of the Michigan survey.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index dropped to -38 this month from -27 in March, as Americans grew more negative about both current economic conditions and the economy’s direction. According to its survey, 47% of U.S. adults believe economic conditions are poor; 73% say they are getting worse.

Consumer sentiment surveys have not been reliable indicators of what people will actually do with their money. Consumer spending in early 2026 remains surprisingly resilient and continues to support economic growth, but it is showing signs of slowing momentum and increased caution. While high-income earners continue to spend, lower-income households are facing pressure, creating a “K-shaped” trend driven by inflation worries, high interest rates, added debt and and depleted savings.

Gasoline Prices

According to Gallup, high gas prices continue to serve as a daily reminder of inflation, and the continuing conflict in Iran has driven gasoline prices up, with national average rising to over $4.52 per gallon. Rising fuel costs are causing households to reduce spending in other areas, as gasoline represents a higher share of expenses for middle- and lower-income families.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports diesel prices exceeding $5.64 per gallon, and jet fuel nearly doubling due to the conflict in Iran. Prices are at their highest level since 2022, with the West Coast seeing gasoline over $6 per gallon.

In Rockland County, the average price of unleaded regular gasoline is $4.692 per gallon. The average price in New York State is $4.588 per gallon, according to AAA.

Inflation & Commodity Prices

Looking at food prices, in April of 2026 (the month with the most recent available data), egg prices have returned to a relative normal, down from $6.223 in March of 2025, now at $2.25 per dozen. Prices returned to normal levels due to a rapid increase in supply, with roughly 9 million more hens now laying eggs compared to last year. Farmers aggressively repopulated flocks following major avian flu outbreaks, creating an oversupply that caused wholesale prices to plummet by over 90% in some cases. (See chart below)

Beef prices have hit record highs, hovering around $6.92 per pound, an increase of about 24% from January 2025. The sky seems to be the limit as the climb has been steady and relentless, going from about $5.00 per pound in January of 2024 to a recent record high.

Beef remains expensive due to a historically low U.S. cattle supply—the smallest in over 70 years—caused by severe, multi-year droughts that forced ranchers to reduce herds. High production costs for feed and labor, and strong consumer demand have created a supply-and-demand mismatch, leading to higher retail prices. (See chart below)

Milk prices have had a slow, but steady increase in pricing since last year, up in April to an average of $4.14 per gallon.

A real heartache for Americans though is coffee, both at home and at the corner coffee shop, with coffee prices up almost 20% in 2025 (the gap in the graph is from the government shutdown when data was unavailable) and closing in on $10 per pound. In April, ground roast coffee reached $9.72 per pound, the highest price since RCBJ started tracking prices.

Electricity prices increased and exceeded a recent high, coming in at $0.194/kwh. Electricity and natural gas prices are on everyone’s mind, especially with delivery and increased costs of grid improvements weighing on consumers. The robust construction of data centers is also expected to increase the costs to consumer as grid improvement costs are generally paid by local residential users.

National unemployment stayed level in April at 4.3%, down from a high of 4.5% last November.

Editor’s Note: For many months, when the government ceased publishing data, RCBJ has paused its “Price Tracker” — a tool enabling readers to see the effects on prices for various commodities from January 2024 through April 2026. Now with data available again, we are back online. Just one caveat: data was blacked out during the government shutdown in October, 2025. There have also been a few holes in the data, and where those holes appear, rather than extrapolate the data, we simply left the month blank. The blanks appear as a gap in the graphs below.

The categories we are tracking are: